Atkinson Memorial Lecture 2025 - Jeffrey Ely (Northwestern University)

Where: Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford (and online)

When: Wednesday 18 June 2025, 3.30-5pm

The Atkinson Memorial Lecture is an annual distinguished lecture series established in 2018 in memory of Professor Sir Tony Atkinson, jointly by the Global Priorities Institute (GPI) and the Department of Economics at Oxford University. The aim is to encourage research among academic economists on topics related to global prioritisation - using evidence and reason to figure out the most effective ways to improve the world. This year we are delighted to have Jeffrey Ely deliver the Atkinson Memorial Lecture. The Atkinson Memorial Lecture is organised in conjunction with the Parfit Memorial Lecture.

You can register for the event here.

Title: Natural Selection of Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

We study the AI control problem in the context of decentralized eco- nomic production. Profit-maximizing firms employ artificial intelligence to automate aspects of production. This creates a feedback loop whereby AI is instrumental in the production and promotion of AI itself. Just as with natural selection of organic species this introduces a new threat whereby machines programmed to distort production in favor of machines can displace those machines aligned with efficient production. We examine the extent to which competitive market forces can serve their traditional efficiency-aligning role in the face of this new threat. Our analysis high- lights the crucial role of AI transparency. When AI systems lack perfect transparency self-promoting machines destablize any efficient allocation. The only stable competitive equilibrium distorts consumption down to catastrophic levels.

About the speaker

Jeff Ely is a microeconomic theorist with interests ranging from pure game theory to applied microeconomics to behavioral and experimental economics. His work includes contributions to the foundations of game theory under incomplete information, repeated games, and mechanism design, the evolution of preferences, and torture. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society. He was a founding co-editor of the open access journal Theoretical Economics. More information can be found here.

Selected publications:

  • “Optimal Test Allocation” Journal of Economic Theory 2021 Volume 193 (joint with Ole Jann, Andrea Galeotti and Jakub Steiner)
  • “Rotation as Contagion Mitigation” Management Science 2021 Volume 67 (5) 2657- 3220. (joint with Andrea Galeotti and Jakub Steiner)
  • “Sequential Information Design” Econometrica 2020 Volume 88 (6) 2575-2608. (joint with Laura Doval)
  • “Moving The Goalposts” Journal of Political Economy 2020 Volume 128 (2) 468-506. (joint with Martin Szydlowski)
  • “Beeps”, American Economic Review 2017. Volume 107 (1), 31-53.
  • “Do Agents Maximize? Risk Taking on First and Second Serves In Tennis” forthcoming Journal of Economic Psychology, 2017, Volume 63C, 135-142 (joint with Lionel Page and Romain Gauriot).

Full list available here.