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Katie Steele | Reasons and Caution in Moral Deliberation

Many think moral decisions should err on the safe side: that caution provides a moral reason for choice. Under what reading(s) of ‘caution’ is that convincing? If ‘caution’ stands for describing and valuing the consequences of actions in the morally right way, then it provides a moral reason for choice, but trivially so. What about a more distinct version of ‘caution’– to do with decision making under uncertainty? The prime candidate is risk aversion. I argue, however, that risk aversion in the various ways it is ordinarily understood is not a convincing moral reason for choice. This has important implications for personal deliberations and public debate. I develop an alternative way to understand ‘caution’ under uncertainty as a moral reason for choice. It depends on there being an aspirational benchmark or reference point which rightly transforms the relative expected gains and losses of our actions.

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Christian Gollier | The economics of discounting and carbon valuation under deep uncertainties

The energy transition will be costly, but it will reduce much larger climate damages in the future without it. In order to compare these immediate costs with their future benefits, one must estimate the “carbon value”, which is ideally equal to the discounted value of the flow of marginal climate damages. This raises the issue of the rate at which very distant climate damages should be discounted. I will explore the economic and moral issues behind our discounting systems in relation to our responsibilities towards future generations, and how they translate into a climate discount rate. I will be particularly interested in the role of the deep uncertainties surrounding the fate of our civilization on this Planet, the intensity of climate change, and the speed of green technological progress.

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Hayden Wilkinson | Global priorities research: Why, how, and what have we learned?

In this talk, Dr Wilkinson will describe what global priorities research is, the case for it being valuable, and key findings so far that may have a major impact on whether we think longtermism is true. The talk is suitable for anyone with anywhere from zero to moderate knowledge of academic global priorities research.

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Hayden Wilkinson | Key findings from Global Priorities Research | EAGxOxford 22

Key findings from Global Priorities Research | Hayden Wilkinson | EAGxOxford 22 This presentation was given on 13 September at the EAGxOxford 2022. Other videos Joshua Lewis | It Only Takes One: The Psychology of Unilateral Decisions 13 June 2024 Theron Pummer | Future Suffering and the Non-Identity Problem 12 June 2024 Daron Acemoglu |

Jeff Sebo | Artificial Sentience and the Ethics of Connected Minds

I want to talk about artificial sentience and the ethics of connected minds. And as Hilary also mentioned, this is part of a new program that we have at NYU called the Mind Ethics and Policy Program. This program will launch in fall 22, a few months, and will examine the sentience and moral status and legal status and political status of nonhumans, including animals and artificial intelligences.

Hilary Greaves | On the desire to make a difference

The sort of one-sentence summary of my talk is, when we’re thinking about benevolence, many people are naturally drawn to frame everything in terms of making a difference. And if you’re extremely careful about how you do it, which some people are, that is fine.

Teru Thomas | The Multiverse and the Veil: Population Ethics Under Uncertainty

So, as you know, our mission at GPI is to do foundational academic research on how to do the most good. And I thought I’d start by explaining one interpretation of what doing good is about. This isn’t really crucial to understanding the main part of the talk, but I thought it might put you in the right kind of mindset. So on this interpretation I’m going to give doing the most good is about reasons of beneficence…

Benjamin Tereick | Creating short term proxies for long term forecasts

I want to explain why short-term proxies are a promising tool for improving our ability to make very long-term forecasts, mostly that is, before short-term proxies can help us evaluate forecasters that can incentivize information acquisition and that can be used for providing feedback for forecasting.