Academic studies can estimate the causal effects of programs and policies, however, their results may not extrapolate beyond their original setting. This workshop gathers leading researchers in causal inference and extrapolation to explore new approaches to this problem. The workshop will cover better ways to design experimental trials, analyze data, and synthesize results from multiple settings. Topics to be discussed include: principal stratification, split samples, Bayesian analysis, structural models, and general equilibrium effects.
Friday, March 16
| 8:30 am to 9:00 am | Welcome tea and coffee |
| 9:00 am to 9:30 am | Introduction to GPI Hilary Greaves (Oxford) |
| 9:30 am to 10:30 am | Toward an Ethical Experiment Yusuke Narita (Yale) |
| 10:30 am to 10:50 am | Break |
| 10:50 am to 11:50 am | Evaluating Counterfactual Predictions from Competing Models Michael Gechter (Penn State) |
| 11:50 am to 1:00 pm | Lunch |
| 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm | Aggregating Distributional Treatment Effects: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of the Microcredit Literature Rachael Meager (LSE) |
| 2:00 pm to 2:20 pm | Break |
| 2:20 pm to 3:20 pm | Selling Low and Buying High: Arbitrage and Local Price Effects in Kenyan Markets Lauren Falcao Bergquist (Chicago) |
| 3:20 pm to 3:40 pm | Break |
| 3:40 pm to 4:40 pm | Using Split Samples to Improve Inference on Causal Effects Julien Labonne (Oxford) |
| 4:40 pm to 5:00 pm | Break |
| 5:00 pm to 6:00 pm | Optimal Allocation for Extrapolation Eva Vivalt (ANU) |
| 7:00 pm | Pre-dinner drinks, followed by dinner at 7:30 Merton College |
Saturday, March 17
| 8:30 am to 9:00 am | Tea and coffee |
| 9:00 am to 9:30 am | Priors Discussion |
| 9:30 am to 10:30 am | Comparing Effects When Access to Alternatives Varies, with Application to a Schooling Experiment Cyrus Samii (NYU) |
| 10:30 am to 10:50 am | Break |
| 10:50 am to 11:50 am | Panel Discussion Panelists: Michael Gechter, Michael Kremer, Cyrus Samii Moderating: Eva Vivalt |
| 11:50 am to 1:00 pm | Lunch |
| 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm | Self-Employment, Capital and Job Search: Experimental Extrapolation Using a Structural Model Simon Quinn (Oxford) |
| 2:00 pm to 2:20 pm | Break |
| 2:20 pm to 3:20 pm | Deworming Meta-Analysis Michael Kremer (Harvard) |
| 3:20 pm to 3:40 pm | Break |
| 3:40 pm to 4:40 pm | External Validity and Policy Adaptation: From Impact Evaluation to Policy Design Martin Williams (Oxford) |
| 4:40 pm to 5:00 pm | Break |
| 5:00 pm to 6:00 pm | Keynote: Targeting Technology Adoption Subsidies: Methods and Mechanisms Sylvain Chassang (NYU) |
With special thanks to the Centre for the Study of African Economies.