Cassandra’s Curse: A second tragedy of the commons

Philippe Colo (ETH Zurich)

GPI Working Paper No. 12 - 2022, published in the Social Science Research Network Research Paper Series

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This paper studies why scientific forecasts regarding exceptional or rare events generally fail to trigger adequate public response. I consider a game of contribution to a public bad. Prior to the game, I assume contributors receive non-verifiable expert advice regarding uncertain damages. In addition, I assume that the expert cares only about social welfare. Under mild assumptions, I show that no information transmission can happen at equilibrium when the number of contributors is high or the severity of damages is low. Then, contributors ignore scientific reports and act solely upon their prior belief.

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