All GPI working papers

Below you will find a complete list of all the papers in the Global Priorities Institute Working Paper Series.

Papers published are draft original research articles on topics that are central to GPI's research agenda, by researchers at GPI and elsewhere. You can find an example of how to reference GPI's working papers here.

See also our lists of selected publications by GPI staff: economics publications, philosophy publications

The structure of critical sets – Walter Bossert (University of Montreal), Susumu Cato (University of Tokyo) and Kohei Kamaga (Sophia University)

Population ethics with thresholds – Walter Bossert (University of Montreal), Susumu Cato (University of Tokyo) and Kohei Kamaga (Sophia University)

Once More, Without Feeling – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Numbers Tell, Words Sell – Michael Thaler (University College London), Mattie Toma (University of Warwick) and Victor Yaneng Wang (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

In Defence of Moderation – Jacob Barrett (Vanderbilt University)

Measuring AI-Driven Risk with Stock Prices – Susana Campos-Martins (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation – Eric Olav Chen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford), Alexis Ghersengorin (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford) and Sami Petersen (Department of Economics, University of Oxford)

The long-run relationship between per capita incomes and population size – Maya Eden (University of Zurich) and Kevin Kuruc (Population Wellbeing Initiative, University of Texas at Austin)

How effective is (more) money? Randomizing unconditional cash transfer amounts in the US – Ania Jaroszewicz (University of California San Diego), Oliver P. Hauser (University of Exeter), Jon M. Jachimowicz (Harvard Business School) and Julian Jamison (University of Oxford and University of Exeter)

What power-seeking theorems do not show – David Thorstad (Vanderbilt University)

A Fission Problem for Person-Affecting Views – Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Consciousness makes things matter – Andrew Y. Lee (University of Toronto)

Desire-Fulfilment and Consciousness – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Against Willing Servitude: Autonomy in the Ethics of Advanced Artificial Intelligence – Adam Bales (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Ethical Consumerism – Philip Trammell (Global Priorities Institute and Department of Economics, University of Oxford)

Aggregating Small Risks of Serious Harms – Tomi Francis (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Dispelling the Anthropic Shadow – Teruji Thomas (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

AI alignment vs AI ethical treatment: Ten challenges – Adam Bradley (Lingnan University) and Bradford Saad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

In search of a biological crux for AI consciousness – Bradford Saad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Future Suffering and the Non-Identity Problem – Theron Pummer (University of St Andrews)

Towards shutdownable agents via stochastic choice – Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford), Alexander Roman (New College of Florida), Christos Ziakas (Independent), Leyton Ho (Brown University), and Louis Thomson (University of Oxford)

Crying wolf: Warning about societal risks can be reputationally risky – Lucius Caviola (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford) et al.

It Only Takes One: The Psychology of Unilateral Decisions – Joshua Lewis (New York University) et al.

Existential Risk and Growth – Philip Trammell (Global Priorities Institute and Department of Economics, University of Oxford) and Leopold Aschenbrenner

Is In-kind Kinder than Cash? The Impact of Money vs Food Aid on Social Emotions and Aid Take-up – Samantha Kassirer, Ata Jami, & Maryam Kouchaki (Northwestern University)

Evolutionary debunking and value alignment – Michael T. Dale (Hampden-Sydney College) and Bradford Saad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

The Shutdown Problem: An AI Engineering Puzzle for Decision Theorists – Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

AI takeover and human disempowerment – Adam Bales (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

How much should governments pay to prevent catastrophes? Longtermism’s limited role – Carl Shulman (Advisor, Open Philanthropy) and Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Critical-set views, biographical identity, and the long term – Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

A non-identity dilemma for person-affecting views – Elliott Thornley (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

How to resist the Fading Qualia Argument – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Consequentialism, Cluelessness, Clumsiness, and Counterfactuals – Alan Hájek (Australian National University)

Population ethical intuitions – Lucius Caviola (Harvard University) et al.

Misjudgment Exacerbates Collective Action Problems – Joshua Lewis (New York University) et al.

How important is the end of humanity? Lay people prioritize extinction prevention but not above all other societal issues. – Matthew Coleman (Northeastern University), Lucius Caviola (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford) et al.

Time Bias and Altruism – Leora Urim Sung (University College London)

Will AI Avoid Exploitation? – Adam Bales (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Against Anti-Fanaticism – Christian Tarsney (Population Wellbeing Initiative, University of Texas at Austin)

Welfare and felt duration – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Estimating long-term treatment effects without long-term outcome data – David Rhys Bernard (Rethink Priorities), Jojo Lee and Victor Yaneng Wang (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Egyptology and Fanaticism – Hayden Wilkinson (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

How to neglect the long term – Hayden Wilkinson (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

The freedom of future people – Andreas T Schmidt (University of Groningen)

Philosophical considerations relevant to valuing continued human survival: Conceptual Analysis, Population Axiology, and Decision Theory – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Concepts of existential catastrophe – Hilary Greaves (University of Oxford)

Three mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk – David Thorstad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

High risk, low reward: A challenge to the astronomical value of existential risk mitigation – David Thorstad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Is Existential Risk Mitigation Uniquely Cost-Effective? Not in Standard Population Models – Gustav Alexandrie (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford) and Maya Eden (Brandeis University)

Longtermism in an Infinite World – Christian J. Tarsney (Population Wellbeing Initiative, University of Texas at Austin) and Hayden Wilkinson (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Minimal and Expansive Longtermism – Hilary Greaves (University of Oxford) and Christian Tarsney (Population Wellbeing Initiative, University of Texas at Austin)

Tiny probabilities and the value of the far future – Petra Kosonen (Population Wellbeing Initiative, University of Texas at Austin)

Can an evidentialist be risk-averse? – Hayden Wilkinson (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Respect for others’ risk attitudes and the long-run future – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Against the singularity hypothesis – David Thorstad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Longtermism, aggregation, and catastrophic risk – Emma J. Curran (University of Cambridge)

The unexpected value of the future – Hayden Wilkinson (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

On the desire to make a difference – Hilary Greaves, William MacAskill, Andreas Mogensen and Teruji Thomas (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Longtermist political philosophy: An agenda for future research – Jacob Barrett (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford) and Andreas T. Schmidt (University of Groningen)

The Conservation Multiplier – Bård Harstad (University of Oslo)

Cassandra’s Curse: A second tragedy of the commons – Philippe Colo (ETH Zurich)

Social Beneficence – Jacob Barrett (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Quadratic Funding with Incomplete Information – Luis M. V. Freitas (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford) and Wilfredo L. Maldonado (University of Sao Paulo)

The Hinge of History Hypothesis: Reply to MacAskill – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

How should risk and ambiguity affect our charitable giving? – Lara Buchak (Princeton University)

Altruism in governance: Insights from randomized training – Sultan Mehmood, (New Economic School), Shaheen Naseer (Lahore School of Economics) and Daniel L. Chen (Toulouse School of Economics)

Intergenerational experimentation and catastrophic risk – Fikri Pitsuwan (Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich)

Strong longtermism and the challenge from anti-aggregative moral views – Karri Heikkinen (University College London)

The weight of suffering – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

The epistemic challenge to longtermism – Christian Tarsney (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Should longtermists recommend hastening extinction rather than delaying it? – Richard Pettigrew (University of Bristol)

On two arguments for Fanaticism – Jeffrey Sanford Russell (University of Southern California)

Simulation expectation – Teruji Thomas (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Moral uncertainty and public justification – Jacob Barrett (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford) and Andreas T Schmidt (University of Groningen)

Funding public projects: A case for the Nash product rule – Florian Brandl (Stanford University), Felix Brandt (Technische Universität München), Dominik Peters (University of Oxford), Christian Stricker (Technische Universität München) and Warut Suksompong (National University of Singapore)

Choosing the future: Markets, ethics and rapprochement in social discounting – Antony Millner (University of California, Santa Barbara) and Geoffrey Heal (Columbia University)

The cross-sectional implications of the social discount rate – Maya Eden (Brandeis University)

Time discounting, consistency and special obligations: a defence of Robust Temporalism – Harry R. Lloyd (Yale University)

Calibration dilemmas in the ethics of distribution – Jacob M. Nebel (University of Southern California) and H. Orri Stefánsson (Stockholm University and Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study)

Dynamic public good provision under time preference heterogeneity – Philip Trammell (Global Priorities Institute and Department of Economics, University of Oxford)

Doomsday and objective chance – Teruji Thomas (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

A paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values – Nick Beckstead (Open Philanthropy Project) and Teruji Thomas (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

The scope of longtermism – David Thorstad (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

The case for strong longtermism – Hilary Greaves and William MacAskill (Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford)

Economic inequality and the long-term future – Andreas T. Schmidt (University of Groningen) and Daan Juijn (CE Delft)

Do not go gentle: why the Asymmetry does not support anti-natalism – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Existential risks from a Thomist Christian perspective – Stefan Riedener (University of Zurich)

Tough enough? Robust satisficing as a decision norm for long-term policy analysis – Andreas Mogensen and David Thorstad (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Longtermist institutional reform – Tyler M. John (Rutgers University) and William MacAskill (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

The end of economic growth? Unintended consequences of a declining population – Charles I. Jones (Stanford University)

Are we living at the hinge of history? – William MacAskill (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Estimating long-term treatment effects without long-term outcome data – David Rhys Bernard (Paris School of Economics)

Non-additive axiologies in large worlds – Christian Tarsney and Teruji Thomas (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Economic growth under transformative AI – Philip Trammell (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University) and Anton Korinek (University of Virginia)

Prediction: The long and the short of it – Antony Millner (University of California, Santa Barbara) and Daniel Heyen (ETH Zurich)

Existential risk and growth – Leopold Aschenbrenner (Columbia University)

Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change – Aurélie Méjean (CNRS, Paris), Antonin Pottier (EHESS, CIRED, Paris), Stéphane Zuber (CNRS, Paris) and Marc Fleurbaey (CNRS, Paris School of Economics)

In defence of fanaticism – Hayden Wilkinson (Australian National University)

Exceeding expectations: stochastic dominance as a general decision theory – Christian Tarsney (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Heuristics for clueless agents: how to get away with ignoring what matters most in ordinary decision-making – David Thorstad and Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Moral demands and the far future – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

The evidentialist’s wager – William MacAskill, Aron Vallinder (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University) Caspar Österheld (Duke University), Carl Shulman (Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University), Johannes Treutlein (TU Berlin)

The asymmetry, uncertainty, and the long term – Teruji Thomas (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Staking our future: deontic long-termism and the non-identity problem – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

When should an effective altruist donate? – William MacAskill (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

The paralysis argument – William MacAskill, Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

‘The only ethical argument for positive 𝛿’? – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Meaning, medicine and merit – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Maximal cluelessness – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

Doomsday rings twice – Andreas Mogensen (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)

A bargaining-theoretic approach to moral uncertainty – Owen Cotton-Barratt (Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University), Hilary Greaves (Global Priorities Institute, Oxford University)