
(2018–2025)
History of GPI
Founded in 2018, the Global Priorities Institute (GPI) was an interdisciplinary research institute at the University of Oxford, focusing on philosophy, economics, and psychology. Its mission was to address deeply unresolved questions crucial for people seeking to do the most good, where good is understood in impartial terms. Beyond conducting its own research, GPI aimed to promote the broader uptake of these questions among academics. At the time, many of these issues were relatively neglected within academia.
Over its seven-year existence, GPI researchers published a wide range of papers in peer-reviewed journals. It also made many more papers made available via a working paper series, which included contributions from both GPI researchers and external scholars. These papers spanned a wide range of topics, including the ethics of the long-term future, mind and value, the risks and opportunities of artificial intelligence, transformative artificial intelligence and economic growth, existential risk, animal welfare, philanthropic decision-making, and effective giving.
In addition to producing research, GPI fostered a vibrant academic community around global priorities research, a research field that aims to identify, understand, and address the world’s most pressing problems. It hosted 20 academic workshops, as well as the Derek Parfit Memorial Lectures in philosophy and the Tony Atkinson Memorial Lectures in economics. It also organised a successful summer fellowship program that introduced many early-career researchers to global priorities research and ran a thriving predoctoral program in economics, placing our alumni at (in geographic order) Berkeley, Stanford, Northwestern, Chicago (x2), Georgetown, Columbia, MIT, MIT Sloan, Oxford, LSE (x2), TSE, and Zurich.
GPI closed at the end of July 2025, but many threads of the institute's research will continue to be explored by a community of interested researchers. GPI's research agendas in philosophy, economics, and psychology highlight many areas that still have substantial room for further research. You can access these research agendas and publications below, and a list of resources is provided at the end of this webpage. If you would like to receive email updates about any future research endeavours that continue the mission of the Global Priorities Institute, you can also sign up here.
Research Agendas
Several additional topics in economics are covered in an older version of the research agenda. Readers interested in a broader set of topics can view them here.
Publications
The following is a list of research publications by staff at GPI (marked with a *), research affiliates (marked with #), and others who published in our working paper series. You can also find summaries of selected papers here.
Books
- Effective altruism: Philosophical Issues
Greaves* & Pummer, Oxford University Press 2019 - Moral Uncertainty
MacAskill*, Bykvist, & Ord, Oxford University Press, 2020 - What We Owe the Future
MacAskill*, Basic Books, 2022 - Effective Altruism And The Human Mind
Schubert & Caviola*, Oxford University Press, 2024. - Essays on Longtermism
Thorstad*, Barrett*, & Greaves*, Oxford University Press, 2025.
Philosophy Publications
Ethics and Future Generations: Longtermism, Existential Risk, and Population Axiology
- Population Ethical Intuitions
Caviola*, Althaus, Mogensen*, & Goodwin, Cognition 2022. - Longtermism and Aggregation
Curran, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 2025. - Concepts of Existential Catastrophe
Greaves*, The Monist, 2024. - Optimum Population Size
Greaves*, The Oxford Handbook of Population Ethics (Arrhenius et al. eds.), 2022. - Comparing Existence and Non-Existence
Greaves* and Cusbert, Ethics and Existence: The Legacy of Derek Parfit (McMahan et al. eds.), 2022. - The Case for Strong Longtermism - Summary
Greaves* and MacAskill*, Essays on Longtermism (Greaves et al., eds), 2025. - Strong Longtermism and the Challenge From Anti-Aggregative Moral Views
Heikkinen, GPI Working Paper, 2022. - Time Discounting, Consistency and Special Obligations: a Defence of Robust Temporalism
Lloyd, GPI Working Paper, 2021. - Are we Living at the Hinge of History? - Summary
MacAskill*, Ethics and Existence: The Legacy of Derek Parfit (McMahan et al. eds.), 2022. - The Significance, Persistence, Contingency Framework
MacAskill*, Thomas* & Vallinder, GPI Technical Report, 2022. - The Hinge of History Hypothesis: Reply to MacAskill
Mogensen*, Analysis, 2024. - The Weight Of Suffering - Summary
Mogensen*, The Journal of Philosophy, 2024. - Respect For Others’ Risk Attitudes And The Long-Run Future
Mogensen*, Nous, 2024. - Philosophical Considerations Relevant to Valuing Continued Human Survival: Conceptual Analysis, Population Axiology, and Decision Theory
Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2023. - The Only Ethical Argument For Positive ઠ? Partiality And Pure Time Preference
Mogensen*, Philosophical Studies, 2022. - Do Not Go Gentle: Why The Asymmetry Does Not Support Anti-Natalism - Summary
Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2021. - Moral Demands and the Far Future - Summary
Mogensen*, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 2021. - Staking Our Future: Deontic Longtermism and the Non-Identity Problem - Summary
Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2019. - The Paralysis Argument - Summary
Mogensen* and MacAskill*, Philosophers’ Imprint, 2021. - How Cost-Effective are Efforts to Detect Near-Earth-Objects
Newberry, GPI Technical Report, 2021. - How Many Lives Does the Future Hold?
Newberry, GPI Technical Report, 2021. - Should Longtermists Recommend Hastening Extinction Rather Than Delaying It?
Pettigrew, The Monist, 2024. - Future Suffering and The Non-Identity Problem
Pummer, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Human Extinction From A Thomist Christian Perspective
Riedener, Effective Altruism and Religion (Riedener et al., eds.), 2022. - How Much Should Governments Pay To Prevent Catastrophes? Longtermism’s Limited Role
Shulman and Thornley*, Essays on Longtermism (Greaves et al., eds), 2025. - The Epistemic Challenge To Longtermism - Summary
Tarsney*, Synthese, 2023. - Non-Additive Axiologies In Large Worlds
Tarsney* and Thomas*, Ergo, 2024. - Longtermism In An Infinite World
Tarsney* and Wilkinson*, Essays on Longtermism (Greaves et al., eds), 2025. - Dispelling The Anthropic Shadow
Thomas*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - The Asymmetry, Uncertainty, And The Long Term
Thomas*, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 2023. - Doomsday And Objective Chance
Thomas*, GPI Working Paper, 2021. - A Non-Identity Dilemma For Person-Affecting Views
Thornley*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - A Fission Problem For Person-Affecting Views
Thornley*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Critical-Set Views, Biographical Identity, And The Long Term
Thornley*, Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 2025. - The Scope Of Longtermism - Summary
Thorstad*, Australasian Journal of Philosophy, forthcoming. - Mistakes In The Moral Mathematics Of Existential Risk
Thorstad*, Ethics, 2024. - High Risk, Low Reward: A Challenge To The Astronomical Value Of Existential Risk Mitigation - Summary
Thorstad*, Philosophy and Public Affairs, 2023. - Aggregation In An Infinite, Relativistic Universe
Wilkinson*, Erkenntnis, 2024. - Infinite Aggregation And Risk
Wilkinson*, Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 2023. - Can The Long Term Matter If Extinction Does Not?
Wilkinson*, GPI Working Paper, 2023.
Decision Theory and Ethics: Fanaticism, Cluelessness, Moral Uncertainty, and More
- In Defence Of Moderation
Barrett*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Moral Uncertainty And Public Justification
Barrett* & Schmidt, Philosophers’ Imprint, 2024. - A Paradox For Tiny Probabilities And Enormous Values - Summary
Beckstead & Thomas*, Nous, 2024. - How Should Risk And Ambiguity Affect Our Charitable Giving?
Buchak, Utilitas, 2023. - A Bargaining-Theoretic Approach To Moral Uncertainty
Greaves* & Cotton-Barratt, Journal of Moral Philosophy, 2023. - On The Desire To Make A Difference
Greaves*, Thomas*, Mogensen*, & MacAskill*, Philosophical Studies, 2024. - Consequentialism, Cluelessness, Clumsiness, And Counterfactuals
Hájek, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Tiny Probabilities And The Value Of The Far Future
Kosonen, GPI Working Paper, 2023. - When Should An Effective Altruist Donate? - Summary
MacAskill*, Giving in Time (Madoff and Soskis, eds.), 2023. - Why Maximize Expected Choice-Worthiness?
MacAskill* and Ord, Nous, 2020. - The Evidentialist’s Wager
MacAskill*, Vallinder, Oesterheld, Shulman, & Treutlein, The Journal of Philosophy, 2021. - Maximal Cluelessness
Mogensen*, Philosophical Quarterly, 2021. - Doomsday Rings Twice - Summary
Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2019. - Tough Enough? Robust Satisficing As A Decision Norm For Long-Term Policy Analysis
Mogensen* & Thorstad*, Synthese, 2022. - Calibration Dilemmas In The Ethics Of Distribution
Nebel & Stefánsson, Economics & Philosophy, 2022. - On Two Arguments For Fanaticism
Russell, Nous, 2024. - Time Bias And Altruism
Sung, Mind, 2024. - Against Anti-Fanaticism
Tarsney*, Philosophy and Phenomenlogical Research, 2024. - Expected Value, To A Point: Moral Decision-Making Under Background Uncertainty
Tarsney*, Noûs, 2025. - Moral Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Tarsney*, Thomas* & Macaskill*, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2024. - Heuristics For Clueless Agents: How To Get Away With Ignoring What Matters Most In Ordinary Decision-Making
Thorstad* & Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2020. - The Unexpected Value Of The Future
Wilkinson*, Ergo, forthcoming. - Flummoxing Expectations
Wilkinson*, Noûs, 2024. - Egyptology And Fanaticism
Wilkinson*, Philosophical Studies, 2024. - Can Risk Aversion Survive The Long Run?
Wilkinson*, The Philosophical Quarterly, 2023. - Can An Evidentialist Be Risk-Averse In The Moral Good?
Wilkinson*, GPI Working Paper, 2022. - In Defence Of Fanaticism - Summary
Wilkinson*, Ethics, 2022.
Political Philosophy
- Social Experimentation In An Unjust World
Barrett* & Buchanan, Oxford Studies in Political Philosophy, 2023. - Social Beneficence
Barrett*, GPI Working Paper, 2022. - Longtermist Institutional Reform - Summary
John & MacAskill*, GPI Working Paper, 2020. - Meaning, Medicine, And Merit
Mogensen*, Utlitas, 2019. - The Freedom Of Future People
Schmidt, Philosophy & Public Affairs, 2025. - Economic Inequality And The Long-Term Future
Schmidt & Juijn, Politics, Philosophy & Economics, 2023.
Risks From Artificial Intelligence
- A Polycrisis Threat Model For AI
Bales*, AI & Society, 2025. - AI Takeover And Human Disempowerment
Bales*, The Philosophical Quarterly, 2024. - Artificial Intelligence: Arguments For Catastrophic Risk
Bales*, D'Alessandro & Kirk-Giannini, Philosophy Compass, 2024. - Will AI Avoid Exploitation? - Summary
Bales*, Philosophical Studies, 2023. - Societal adaptation to advanced AI,
Bernardi, Mukobi, Greaves*, Heim & Anderljung 2024
- Evolutionary Debunking And Value Alignment
Dale & Saad*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Input To UN Interim Report On Governing AI For Humanity
Saad* et al., 2024. - Towards Shutdownable Agents Via Stochastic Choice
Thornley*, Roman, Ziakas, Ho & Thomson, Technical A.I. Safety Conference, 2025 - The Shutdown Problem: An AI Engineering Puzzle For Decision Theorists
Thornley*, Philosophical Studies, 2024. - The Shutdown Problem: Incomplete Preferences as a Solution
Thornley*, Working Paper, 2024. - Shutdownable Agents through POST-Agency
Thornley*, Working Paper, 2025. - Against the Singularity Hypothesis - Summary
Thorstad*, Philosophical Studies, 2024. - What Power-Seeking Theorems Do Not Show
Thorstad*, GPI Working Paper, 2024.
Digital Minds
- Against Willing AI Servitude
Bales*, The Philosophical Quarterly, 2025. - AI Alignment Vs AI Ethical Treatment: Ten Challenges
Bradley & Saad*, Analytic Philosophy, forthcoming - Varieties Of Moral Agency And Risks Of Digital Dystopia
Bradley & Saad*, American Philosophical Quarterly, forthcoming. - Principles For Responsible AI Consciousness Research
Butlin* & Lappas, Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2025. - Taking AI Welfare Seriously
Long, Sebo, Butlin*, Finlinson, Fish, Harding, Pfau, Sims, Birch & Chalmers, Working Paper, 2024. - How To Resist The Fading Qualia Argument
Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - In Search Of A Biological Crux For AI Consciousness
Saad*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Digital Minds Takeoff Scenarios
Saad* & Caviola*. - Simulation Expectation - Summary
Thomas*, Erkenntnis, 2024.
Mind and Value
- Consciousness Makes Things Matter
Lee, Philosophers’ Imprint, forthcoming. - Chains Of Care And The Expanding Circle Of Prudential Concern
Li & Saad* - Once More, Without Feeling
Mogensen*, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, forthcoming - Welfare And Felt Duration
Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Desire-Fulfilment And Consciousness
Mogensen*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - A Dualist Theory Of Experience
Saad*, Philosophical Studies, 2025.
Economics Publications
Normative Economics
- The structure of critical sets
Bossert, Cato & Kamaga, GPI Working Paper, 2025. - Population ethics with thresholds
Bossert, Cato & Kamaga, GPI Working Paper, 2025. - The Cross‐Sectional Implications of the Social Discount Rate
Eden#, Econometrica, 2023. - XU
Fryxell*, Working Paper, 2024. - Infinite Ignorance
Fryxell*, Working Paper, 2024. - Utilitarianism is Implied by Individual and Social Dominance
Gustafsson, Spears#, Zuber, Working Paper, 2023. - Nondogmatic Social Discounting
Millner#, American Economic Review, 2020. - Choosing the Future: Markets, Ethics, and Rapprochement in Social Discounting
Millner# & Heal, Journal of Economic Literature, 2023. - A characterization of Cesàro average utility
Pivato#, Journal of Economic Theory, 2022. - Cesàro Average Utilitarianism in Relativistic Spacetime
Pivato#, Social Choice & Welfare, 2023. - Intergenerational Equity and Infinite-Population Ethics: A Survey
Pivato# and Fleurbaey, Journal of Mathematical Economics, forthcoming. - What Should We Agree on about the Repugnant Conclusion?
Tarsney*, Spears#, Pivato#, MacAskill*, Kuruc#, Greaves*, et al., Utilitas, 2021.
Population and Welfare
- Population and Welfare:Measuring Growth when Life is Worth Living
Adhami, Bils, Klenow, and Jones#, Working Papers, 2025. - Intergenerational Transmission is Not Sufficient for Positive Long-Term Population Growth
Arenberg, Kuruc#, Franz, Vyas, Lawson, LoPalo, Budolfson, Geruso, and Spears#, Demography, 2022. - The Long-Run Relationship Between Per Capita Incomes and Population Size
Eden# and Kuruc#, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population
Jones#, American Economic Review, 2022. - The Speed of History
Fryxell* and Kuruc#, Working Paper, 2024. - Long-Term Population Projections: Scenarios of Low or Rebounding Fertility
Spears#, Vyas, Weston, and Geruso, Plos One, 2024. - Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population
Vyas, Budolfson, Kuruc#, Spears#, and Geruso, Working Paper, 2024.
Animal Welfare
Existential and Catastrophic Risk
- Is Extinction Risk Mitigation Uniquely Cost-Effective? Not in Standard Population Models
Alexandrie* & Eden#, Essays on Longtermism, 2023. - Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity
Méjean, Pottier, Fleurbaey, & Zuber, Climate Change, 2020. - Intergenerational experimentation and catastrophic risk
Pitsuwan, GPI Working Paper, 2022. - Existential Risk and Growth
Trammell# & Aschenbrenner, GPI Working Paper, 2024.
Risks and Opportunities from AI
- Computational ethics
Jamison* et al., Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 2022. - Measuring AI-Driven Risk with Stock Prices
Campos-Martins*, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Imperfect Recall and AI Delegation
Chen*, Ghersengorin*, and Petersen, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk
Jones#, American Economic Review: Insights, 2024. - Economic Growth under Transformative AI
Trammell# and Korinek, Annual Review of Economics, forthcoming.
Philanthropic Decision-Making
- Funding public projects: A case for the Nash product rule
Brandl#, Brandt, Greger, Peters, Stricker, & Suksompong, Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2022 - The Conservation Multiplier
Harstad, Journal of Political Economy, 2023. - Quadratic Funding with Incomplete Information
Mota Freitas* and Maldonado, Social Choice and Welfare, 2024. - Patient Philanthropy in an Impatient World
Trammell#, Technical Report, 2022. - Dynamic public good provision under time preference heterogeneity
Trammell#, GPI Working Paper, 2024. - Ethical Consumerism
Trammell#, GPI Working Paper, 2024.
Evidence and Policy-Making
- Understanding and Increasing Policymakers' Sensitivity to Program Impact
Bell and Toma*, Journal of Public Economics, 2024. - Estimating long-term treatment effects without long-term outcome data
Bernard, Lee*, & Wang*, GPI Working Paper, 2023. - Cassandra’s Curse: A second tragedy of the commons
Colo, GPI Working Paper, 2022. - Altruism in governance: Insight from randomized training
Mehmood, Naseer, & Chen, Journal of Development Economics, 2024. - Prediction: The long and short of it
Millner# & Heyen, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2021. - Numbers tell, Words sell
Thaler, Toma*, & Wang*, GPI Working Paper, 2025. - How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?
Vivalt*, Journal of the European Economics Association, 2020. - How Do Policymakers Update Their Beliefs?
Vivalt* & Coville, Journal of Development Economics, 2023. - Local Knowledge, Formal Evidence, and Policy Decisions
Vivalt*, Coville, & KC, Journal of Development Economics, 2025.
Effective Giving
Psychology Publications
Global Catastrophic Risk and Longtermism
- Crying Wolf: Warning About Societal Risks Can Be Reputationally Risky
Caviola*, Coleman, Winter & Lewis, 2025. - Population Ethical Intuitions
Caviola*, Althaus, Mogensen* & Goodwin, Cognition, 2022. - Beliefs About The End Of Humanity: How Bad, Likely, And Important Is Human Extinction?
Coleman, Caviola*, Lewis & Goodwin, 2025. - It Only Takes One: The Psychology of Unilateral Decisions
Lewis, Allen, Winter & Caviola*, 2025. - Misjudgment Exacerbates Collective Action Problems
Lewis, Srna, Morrissey, Wilks, Winter & Caviola*, 2025. - Communicating Tail-Risk Credibly
Neto, Lewis & Caviola*, 2025. - The Psychology Of Existential Risk: Moral Judgments About Human Extinction
Schubert, Caviola* & Faber, 2022, Scientific Reports, 2019. - Temporal Distance Reduces Ingroup Favoritism
Schubert, Caviola*, Savulescu & Faber, 2025.
Artificial Intelligence and Digital Minds
- Reluctance To Harm AI
Allen & Caviola*, 2025. - The Societal Response To Potentially Sentient AI
Caviola*, 2025. - The Social Science Of Digital Minds: Research Agenda
Caviola*, 2025. - Forecasting Digital Minds Takeoff Scenarios: Expert Survey
Caviola* & Saad*, 2025. - Subjective Experience In AI Systems: What Do AI Researchers And The Public Believe?
Dreksler, Caviola*, Allen, Lewis, Mays, Sebo & Chalmers, 2025. - Digital Sentience Skepticism
Ladak & Caviola*, 2025. - Digital Minds Takeoff Scenarios
Saad* & Caviola*, 2024. - AI Can Outperform Humans In Predicting Correlations Between Personality Items
Schoenegger, Greenberg, Grishin, Lewis & Caviola*, Communications Psychology, 2025.
Moral Psychology
- Moral Psychology and Utilitarianism
Caviola* & Greene, An Introduction to Utilitarianism, 2024. - Signaling (In)Tolerance: Social Evaluation and Metaethical Relativism and Objectivism
Moss, Montealegre, Bush, Caviola* & Pizarro, Cognition, 2025. - Children Value Animals More Than Adults Do: A Conceptual Replication And Extension
Paruzel-Czachura, Maier, Warmuz, Wilks & Caviola*, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 2024.
Resources
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